9:10am-10:00am
Strategic Forecasting: An Application of Collaborative Modeling and Simulation
Brian Lewis, Vice President, Professional Services, Vanguard Software
Strategic forecasting is a complex endeavor that requires a combination of knowledge-exchange capabilities and OR methodology. Lewis will focus on the recent emergence of Collaborative Modeling and Simulation (CMS) as a practical and efficient approach to strategic forecasting. The knowledge a company needs to develop forecasts is divided among individuals spread throughout the organization. CMS frees decision-makers from having to rely on the analysis of a single planner with second-hand knowledge of critical issues by directly involving key individuals in the modeling process itself. Three real-world case studies will illustrate the benefits and issues of applying CMS to strategic forecasting:
• Forecasting manufacturing costs to improve product design;
• Product portfolio simulations for market forecasting; and
• Industry-wide supply chain models for strategic capacity planning.
10:30am-11:20am
Accounting for Demand Forecast Bias When Implementing Optimal Inventory Levels
Jerry Hwang, Risk Management Consultant, Hewlett-Packard Company
In FY07, HP President Mark Hurd made managing inventory levels one of the highest priorities for HP’s business units. During this period, the Portfolio Risk Management (PRM) Group received requests from the business units to help reduce and re-optimize inventory levels. HP carries over $7 billion in inventory across its many business units to support operations and as insurance to protect against uncertainties in the supply chain. Because these supply chain uncertainties are difficult to quantify, inventory levels are often subjectively set at sub-optimal levels, leading to increased supply chain costs. The PRM Group recently developed analytical tools to efficiently measure forecast uncertainty and set optimal strategic inventory levels. To facilitate adoption by HP’s business units, the tools are designed with ease-of-use, accessibility, and transparency in mind. In this session, Hwang will discuss the use and development of these tools.
11:30am-12:20pm
Diffusion Models for Product Life Cycle Forecasting
Evren Ozkaya, , H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
In the global economy, growing demand combined with increasing rates of innovation in both product and process technologies drive shorter product life cycles. New generations of products are introduced as often as every year, magnifying steep product ramp-up and ramp-down phases. This phenomenon makes it harder for companies to forecast the new product demand and find the right “product mix”. In this talk, Ozkaya will focus on forecasting new product launches and product mix using Bass Diffusion Models with examples from the high-tech industry. Listeners will benefit from the following key topics:
• How to use diffusion models as a forecasting tool in launching new products even with little or no data;
• Major challenges facing forecasting new product introductions;
• New, user-friendly approaches and easy-to-implement diffusion models to address these problems;
• Examples from industry and numerical studies on real data, emphasizing the benefits of estimating product mix.
2:00pm-2:5opm
Integrating Operations Research Methodologies to Improve Analytical Value
John R. Tindle, Senior Decision Analyst, Northrop Grumman IT/TASC
This presentation provides details of a study for the Air Force Research Laboratory where integration of operations research methodologies significantly improved the resultant analytical value. The analytical objective was to define and develop a capability to perform integrated analysis in support of Focused Long-Term Challenge planning, programming, and execution decisions. The effort focused on the ISR mission impacts of select high resolution imaging capabilities across a domain-layered family of select air and space sensors enabled by advanced sensor management technologies. Understanding the trades associated with the numerous combinations of technologies required integration of several operations research techniques, including military utility analysis, constructive simulations, multi-attribute utility analysis, Bayesian influence analysis, netted effects analysis, force mix generation and engineering analyses. In this talk, Tindle will provide a step-by-step description of the analytical process, observing how data flowed between methodologies and, through the integration of these methodologies and tools, how the analysis was conducted.
3:30pm-4:10pm
Applying Text Analytics and Information Mining in Strategic Planning
Ruoyi Zhou, Research Manager, IBM Almaden Research Center
In today's competitive business environment, enterprises can no longer depend on the traditional roadmap approach to plan for their future. There is an increasing need to prepare for the unexpected in order to succeed in the market place. Zhou and her colleagues developed a strategic planning framework that applies text analytics and information mining technology combined with innovative techniques to help organizations create a more comprehensive, but scientifically defensible, view of the future. In this talk, Zhou will describe how text analytics, information mining and forecasting techniques are applied to create a strategic planning framework. A case study using the framework will also be presented.
4:30pm-5:20pm
Practicing OR in a Large Company: The Analytical Business Consultant
Thomas Olavson, Director, Strategic Planning & Modeling (SPaM), Hewlett-Packard Company
OR practitioners have unique analytical skills to help improve decision-making at large companies like Hewlett-Packard. However, analytical skills alone are not enough to have high impact on strategic decisions and operational processes. To have high impact and to avoid being commoditized by an increasing supply of OR analysts in lower cost regions, OR practitioners providing decision-support within multinational companies should strive to develop a balance of analytical and consulting skills in the profile of an “Analytical Business Consultant.” In this talk, Olavson will draw on experiences as an OR consultant and OR group manager at HP in discussing the profile of the “Analytical Business Consultant,” reviewing common failure modes and lessons for maximizing our impact as analytical consultants, and raising questions on the education and career path for the analytical consultant.
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