9:10am-10:00am
Forecasting Recruiting Requirements for the U.S. Army
Lt. Colonel Lynette M.B. Arnhart, PhD, Branch Chief, Military Strength Analysis and Forecasting, DAPE-PRS, DCS-G1, U.S. Army; and Kristen Gooch, MS, Operations Research Analyst, AT&T Government Solutions
This presentation will provide an overview of the U.S. Army’s use of operations research to forecast aggregate recruiting requirements for the active component. The Army G1’s Strength Analysis and Forecasting Division in the Plans and Resources Directorate (PRS) produce the Active Army Military Manpower Plan (AAMMP). Based on the force structure allowance (FSA) predicated upon the National Military Strategy and the current personnel inventory, the AAMMP develops the future inventory required to man the FSA. In producing the AAMMP, PRS employs a suite of four models: the office forecasting model, individuals account model, enlisted grade (EG) model, and enlisted specialty model. This presentation will focus on the EG model, a large-scale linear program using MPL to code the problem and CPLEX as a solver, that prescribes accessions and promotions to minimize monthly deviations between the available inventory and the FSA at aggregate and grade levels. This deviation is commonly referred to as the enlisted operating strength deviation (OSD).
10:30am-11:20am
Models for Policy Design and Analysis in Agriculture
Neilson Conklin, President, Farm Foundation
Agricultural policy analysis has a long and rich tradition of quantitative modeling. In today’s globalized environment where markets for food and agricultural products are increasingly linked to energy markets, understanding the effects of policy changes requires increasingly sophisticated modeling capability. Furthermore, the range of issues facing agricultural policy makers is increasingly broad, ranging from the distributional consequences of trade agreements, through the budgetary consequences of farm programs to the economic impact of food safety and labeling regulations. This presentation explores the range of modeling frameworks currently used by agricultural policy analysts and examines the challenges of constructing and maintaining models for policy analysis.
11:30am-12:20pm
Policy Analysis with Computable General Equilibrium Models
Shantayanan Devarajan, PhD, Chief Economist, South Asia Region, The World Bank
Whenever a public policy has economy-wide effects—as an exchange rate devaluation, the removal of trade barriers, or the introduction of a tax on fossil fuels—decision-makers need to know the quantitative magnitudes involved, the adjustments in the economy that will follow, and who the winners and losers will be. Computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models have become the tool of choice for evaluating these effects. This presentation will take five examples from the application of CGE models to policies in developing countries, and show:
• Why the problem required a general equilibrium model,
• How the use of other models would have given misleading results,
• What the analysis showed,
• How it influenced policy.
• What the limitations of the analysis were.
The examples will range from the devaluation of the CFA Franc in Africa to energy taxation in the Philippines to global trade negotiations to fuel subsidies in Indonesia. Devarajan will conclude by drawing from these examples some general lessons on the potential and limitations of CGE models in policy analysis. Co-authors: Jeffrey D. Lewis, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe.
2:00pm-2:50pm
Army Reserve Stationing Study: A Decision Analysis Case Study
Lt. Colonel Robert D. Bradford, MS, Operations Research Analyst, and Tucker Hughes, MA, Operations Research Analyst, Center for Army Analysis, US Army
The U.S. Army Reserve makes over one hundred decisions every year on where to station units. Reserve units must be stationed where the local population can support unit personnel requirements. In addition to satisfying recruiting goals, other objectives for successful stationing relate to the retention of existing reserve soldiers, the proximity to centralized training and maintenance sites, and the use of existing facilities. In this presentation, Bradford and Hughes will discuss this study conducted for the Army Reserve by the Center for Army Analysis. Their work identified the critical decision factors, gathered available data sources, and developed a multi-criteria decision support tool with geographic display capability to support current and future Army Reserve stationing decisions. The presentation will focus on how they put decision analysis theory into practice.
3:30pm-4:20pm
Impacts of Deep CO2 Reduction Targets on US Technology Choices: Assessing Optimal Pathways and Opportunities Under Proposed US GHG Regulations
Gary A. Goldstein, PhD, Project Manager, Advanced Systems Analyst, Energy Systems Modeler and Pat DeLaquil, PhD , Senior Manager/Principal, Energy and Environmental Management Division, International Resources Group, Ltd.
Under the US Climate Action Partnership, major US corporations are calling for clear legislation to limit the release of greenhouse gases. The leading legislative proposal presented to Congress calls for a “cap-and-trade” regime aimed at achieving a 50% reduction in 2000 to 2050 cumulative emissions compared to a business-as-usual case. Under funding from the Natural Resources Defense Council, International Resources Group is examining pathways for achieving the goals set forth in the legislation. The resulting analysis, conducted with the US national MARKAL model, identifies the key structural and technological changes that will need to occur and explores policy variants that may enable achieving the ultimate goals at least-cost. Those attending this presentation will be provided with:
• An overview of the US national MARKAL model and its application to this problem;
• An understanding of the key issues shaping the legislation and their representation in the model;
• Insight into the nature of the energy system transformation, investment requirements, sectoral impacts, and cost of achieving the goals, and
• An understanding of supporting policy variants that have an impact on the cost of compliance.
4:30pm-5:20pm
OR Modeling for Government Policy Analysis: Agricultural Related Energy, Climate Change and Farm Policy
Bruce A. McCarl, PhD, Regents Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University
Policy and program decisions are being made that will have important effects on agriculture, including in the arenas of climate change, fuels production and trade. In considering policy implementation, questions arise as to the effects on farm incomes, consumer food prices, commodity production, exports, imports, and water quality. Such questions are often addressed by modeling approaches that simulate the agricultural market with and without the presence of certain policies and/or environmental factors. In this session, McCarl will present a type of optimization model using nonlinear programming and explore its application to several environmental issues. He will discuss the model structure and its incorporation of two-stage stochastic decision making, Dantzig Wolfe decomposition principles, separable programming and multi-year dynamics. He will then describe implementation of the model in settings related to climate change, valuation of weather forecasting, disease vulnerability analysis and biofuels analysis.
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