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Track: Analytics in the Public Sector

How to Measure Risk with Limited and Messy Data

Tuesday, April 13, 2:40-3:20pm EDT

Learn how quantitative risk management can be done even in what seems to be the most challenging situations. No matter how limited data may seem, the goal is to outperform alternatives like risk matrices and unaided intuition. Research shows that even naive quantitative models provide benefits compared to methods which lack quantitative components. Simple techniques can build on subject matter expertise so that we can compute risk in quantitative meaningful terms and we can estimate return-on-mitigation.

Douglas Hubbard image

Douglas Hubbard

Douglas Hubbard

Owner/Founder of Hubbard Decision Research

Mr. Hubbard is the inventor of the powerful Applied Information Economics (AIE) method. His management consulting career started 32 years ago with Coopers & Lybrand, focusing on the application of quantitative methods. The last 22 years he has completed over 160 projects for the application of AIE to solve current business issues in many areas including IT benefits and risks including cybersecurity, engineering risks, market forecasts for pharma and medical devices, environmental policy, mergers & acquisitions, Silicon Valley startups, the likelihood of success of new movies, and military logistics to name a few. His AIE methodology has received critical praise from The Gartner Group, The Giga Information Group, and Forrester Research.

He is the author of the following books (all published with Wiley, between 2007 and 2020):

  • How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (one of the all-time, best-selling books in business math and required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep)
  • The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It
  • Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities
  • How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (co-authored with Richard Seiersen)

His books have sold over 160,000 copies in eight languages and are used as textbooks in dozens of university courses including the graduate level. Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep, and he is the only author with more than one on the list. In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard is published in the prestigious science journal Nature as well as The IBM Journal of Research & Development, The American Statistician, CIO Magazine, Information Week, DBMS Magazine, Architecture Boston, OR/MS Today and Analytics Magazine.