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Sophia Lander
Sophia Lander

Sophia Lander

PhD Student
The University of Texas at Austin
Bio

Sophia Lander is a PhD student in the Government Department at the University of
Texas at Austin. She studies international political economy and formal and statistical methods to
better understand how firms and governments interact. Her previous research has focused on
arbitration and dispute resolution mechanisms in international treaties, and her current work is
oriented toward uncovering the underlying mechanisms behind technological innovation in
complex economic systems. Prior to attending UT Austin, Sophia completed her Bachelor of
Arts in Political Science at Columbia University and interned at Metrea, where she was first
introduced to defense analytics. Her research on game-theoretic approaches to wargaming was
awarded the 2024 Military Operations Research Society’s Eugene Visco Prize.


Innovative Winners: Variation of Technological Innovation and Fitness in Public-Private Partnerships

Governments and firms frequently collaborate to produce technological innovations, yet the
outcomes of these public–private partnerships vary widely. This raises the central research question of this paper: Why do similar public–private partnerships generate divergent innovative outcomes in the global marketplace? To address this question, I develop an agent-based model (ABM) of innovation ecosystems in which firms, products, markets, and governments co-evolve.

In the model, a product’s market success is a probabilistic process shaped by a product’s fitness, stochastic selection, and strategic intervention by the state—through investment, information provision, and induced firm exit. The hypothesis I advance allows governments to act as selective market shapers rather than neutral regulators, influencing which technologies achieve market dominance independent of their intrinsic innovativeness.

The ABM generates distributions of firm entry and survival, as well as product dominance in the market, under varying policy regimes, offering insight into the conditions under which state intervention enhances or constrains technological innovation. I then turn to empirical analysis using large-scale time-series data on patents and government investment, including data on sovereign wealth funds and the number of state-owned enterprises. The findings speak directly to defense policymakers seeking to design resilient, innovation-oriented industrial strategies in contested technology domains where government–industry partnerships play a central role.