Prof. Dr. M. Tolga Akçura – Founder & Chief Scientist, eBrandValue, Inc.; Professor of Marketing, Özyeğin University
Ayşe Akçura – Founder & CEO, eBrandValue, Inc.
We present an end-to-end analytics framework that converts large-scale public social data into sales-correlated metrics, forward-looking forecasts, and capital-market signals. Developed by eBrandValue, Inc., the methodology constructs an author-level interaction graph integrating multi-platform social data with internal sales, pricing, and distribution variables.
Descriptive analytics use embedding-based NLP and large language models to extract topic structures, sentiment dynamics, narrative clusters, and brand-affinity signals. Graph modeling identifies community structures, influence centrality, and diffusion pathways.
Predictive analytics link social-derived features to monthly sales using supervised learning with causality-based lag identification (e.g., Granger). Model selection combines LASSO, stepwise SARIMAX, and neural sequence architectures (e.g., SCINet) within a dynamic ensemble framework. The system produces 12–24 month rolling forecasts with uncertainty bands, achieving multi-month-ahead correlations approaching 0.9 and materially improving volume fit relative to legacy brand metrics.
Beyond demand forecasting, we compute brand value measures grounded in consumer-learning theory. Event-study analyses demonstrate that changes in these calculated brand values are statistically significant predictors of abnormal stock-price movements around earnings announcements. Pre-announcement shifts in brand value explain incremental variation in cumulative abnormal returns beyond accounting fundamentals, suggesting that social-derived brand information is partially priced by capital markets.
Prescriptive analytics leverage graph centrality, community detection, and anomaly detection to guide influencer strategy, marketing allocation, and crisis mitigation. The framework integrates econometrics, network science, and machine learning into a scalable, replicable decision-support system deployed across FMCG, financial services, and QSR sectors.
