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Duncan Ellis
Duncan Ellis

Duncan Ellis

Principal Data Scientist
Ford Performance & Active Decision Support
Bio

Duncan R. Ellis is the Managing Partner for Operations and Finance at Active Decision Support, a small analytics firm focused on professional motorsports. Duncan is a recognized expert in the industry on racing analytics, decision strategy, and application development.  A longtime “grass-roots” racer himself, Duncan is a two time Mid-Atlantic regional champion (2014-2015) in the National Autosport Association’s Spec Miata racing class.A retired Commander in the U.S. Navy, prior to his work in professional motorsports, Duncan was a Supply Corps Officer serving as the Deputy Director of Analytics and Integration at Naval Supply Systems Command (NAVSUP) where he worked to establish a Center of Excellence to pool and align limited analytic resources toward solving critical inventory and logistics challenges.  Duncan has held additional Operations Research positions at NAVSUP Weapon Systems Support, leading a team of in-house and contractor personnel responsible for developing, designing, and implementing production inventory models, as well as at Chief of Naval Operations Staff, where he worked on developing statistical methods to assess the sufficiency of the Navy’s Combat Logistics Force. Duncan earned an undergraduate degree in Computer Science from the University of Iowa and received an MS in Operations Research from Naval Postgraduate School, where he graduated with distinction, and was recognized for Outstanding Academic Achievement by the Monterey Peninsula Council of the Navy League.


An Analytics Framework for Understanding Motorsports: An introduction to analytics challenges in professional motorsports focused on American stock car racing, and how Data Science can help to advance the art of the possible in a fast paced pressure filled environment.

Founded in 1948, The National Association for Stock Car Racing (NASCAR) partners with three Original Equipment Manufacturers (Ford, Chevrolet, and Toyota) to sanction the NASCAR Cup series.  The most popular series of motorsports in the United States, the 2024 championship race held in Phoenix was watched by over 2.9 million viewers.  NASCAR’s demanding season spans 36 official races each year across a myriad of track types and provides unique challenges for professionals in the Operations Research and Data Science fields. In this talk we’ll explore the world of the NASCAR Cup Series through the lens of the Data Scientist; from the demanding schedule, the constraints imposed by rules, and the objectives and incentives that drive decisions off and on the track.  We’ll look at key challenges across the sport, to include vehicle and driver performance, race preparation and strategy, and reducing time to decision when the unexpected happens.  We’ll compare and contrast auto racing to data science challenges in other sports, as well as those found in industrial and military applications.