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Brian Putt

Brian Putt

Self-employed Consultant

Brian H. Putt consults on decision quality/decision analysis and maintains a YouTube Channel that includes many videos about applications of decision analysis using Excel and Monte Carlo with SIPmath. He is on the Board of Directors for SDP and sits on the SDP certification committee. He is a Fellow in the Society of Decision Professionals. He also donates time to the nonprofit Probability Management that promotes the “Arithmetic of Uncertainty” and is the Technology and Applications Chair for Probability Management. Brian worked multiple decades with Chevron performing project economic analysis in the petroleum industry, mostly upstream. He holds a M.S. in Operations Research and BS in General Engineering from Stanford University, and a BA in Economics from Claremont McKenna College.


Track: Decision & Risk Analysis

Decision Analysis for Lone Star Drill: Graphics and Explanations that Lead to Good Decision Quality

A critical component of high decision quality is commitment to action. That in turn relies on decision makers who understand the results of analyses. We will show and discuss various graphics that cover basic economics of a two gas well program in continuous space using Monte Carlo, but then expand the evaluation to include options to develop the second well based on the value of information. We will show and discuss Cumulative Distribution Charts, Capital Efficiency Charts, Minimum Functional Objectives, Probabilistic Tornado Charts, Distribution of the Value of Information, and trade-offs (risk and reward) among key decision metrics. The examples will focus on investment efficiency and net present value as decision criteria. The direction of the session will partially depend on the interests of the participants. Time permitting, we will expand to correlate the two wells and review the impact on the decision policy and economics. The Excel file, which uses no VB or macros, will be available.