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Stephen Koellner

Stephen Koellner

Tech Advisor & Cost Estimator at Augur Consulting

Stephen Koellner is a Technical Advisor at Augur Consulting with an extensive background in cost estimation. Stephen has supported DOD and DOE programs, including the 2022 ICEAA “Team Achievement of the Year” winning Army Defensive Cyber Operations cost team. He was a contributor to the 2020 GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, was published in the Earth and Planetary Science Letters journal for ice sheet modeling research and has a BS from Pennsylvania State University.
Track: Accounting and Financial Services

Spread Too Thin: Interpreting Coefficient of Variation in Monte-Carlo Based Cost Models

Realistic cost uncertainty bounds are key for mitigating cost-growth risks, this topic will identify and counter causes of CV thinning in bottoms-up cost models. Concepts such as “Over-sharpening the pencil” and the importance of correlating input variables are justified through this discussion. A CV equation is identified for a WBS, and behavior of this equation is explored through perturbations of a baseline and results of randomly generated WBSs. Both new and experienced estimators can learn what causes bottoms-up CV thinning through this rigorous yet approachable presentation.