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Thomas Siems headshot

Thomas Siems

Thomas Siems

Chief Economist at Conference of State Bank Supervisors 

Thomas Siems is Chief Economist at the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) in Washington, DC. Thomas joined CSBS in 2019 after serving nearly 34 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and 20+ years teaching students at Southern Methodist University. Siems earned a BSE in industrial and operations engineering from the University of Michigan and MS and PhD degrees in operations research from Southern Methodist University. Dr. Siems is also a graduate of the Graduate School of Banking at Colorado and has published more than 75 articles in academic, Federal Reserve, and referred journals. He delivered a 2015 TEDxSMU Talk, “The Wealth of Innovations,” and has authored five children’s picture books, including The Dangerous Pet, which poetically helps readers understand the dangers of debt.
Track: Accounting and Finance

A Predictive Analytics Model to Identify Risky Banks

Bank examiners ensure that banks are managed in a safe and sound manner. By reviewing financial statements and internal bank policies and procedures, examiners evaluate a bank’s level of risk and adherence to federal and state banking laws. With roughly 4,500 banks in the United States, bank examiners must rely on off-site risk-modeling tools to monitor individual banks, particularly smaller institutions that do not have as frequent on-site examinations. The early detection of financial distress and/or failure of a bank can help stem losses and systemic contagion of losses throughout the financial system and save taxpayers from potential costly government bailouts. Based on discussions with bank examiners, community bankers, and financial system researchers, we use bank call reports, macroeconomic data, and other historical information to develop an early-warning predictive analytics model to detect individual bank weakness and potential vulnerability to failure.